Scope of the Medical Technology Industry in 2022

Scope of the Medical Technology Industry in 2022

1. Introduction to the Scope of the Medical Technology

Over the last few years, there has been a lot of focus on the scope of the medical technology industry, in particular how many new drugs will be approved for human use in 2022 and what those drugs are going to be. Many people have made some solid arguments for and against some of these forecasts, but so far I haven’t seen any real evidence that either side is right.

Here’s my take:

The scope of the medical technology industry is subject to huge uncertainty. In reality, we must conclude that very few predictions about the scope of the medical technology industry are accurate. Most forecasts are based on optimistic assumptions regarding new drug approval timelines and market size. For example, estimates of anticipated 2022 annual sales vary widely depending on whether we consider only approved drugs or all other medications (including both biologics and prophylactics).

Sales estimates also vary depending on whether we include large-scale generic competitors (e.g., Pfizer) that are not yet approved for human use in our model, or exclude them from our estimate (i.e., compare 2018 sales with sales from 2017). We also need to make judgments about how many new drugs will be approved each year and how long it will take for them to reach the market — one clear thing is that there will be more new drugs than ever before in 2022 (the FDA published its final approval guidelines this week).

There are many important factors influencing the cost and efficacy of a drug, including:

• The price at which it is entered into supply chains;

• The number of people who can actually take it;

• How extensively a patent term is enforced;

• How well a drug gets studied by independent researchers; and so forth.

Given these factors, it seems sensible to make broad assumptions about the number of approvals — especially since they include an assumption about how long it will take for approval timelines to extend from annual figures published during 2018-2022. That long-range assumption may not actually be too optimistic given recent trends in approval timelines for biologics — over three-quarters of all biologic approvals were issued by the FDA between 2017-2018 (though patents were issued across a wider range). The number of biologics that FDA approves annually has increased by 35% since 2011 (this includes approvals based on safety data as well as ones based on efficacy data), but most experts I have talked with think this trend shows no signs of slowing down

2. Medical Technology Industry Market Statistics

Although the field of medical technology is relatively young, the market is already a significant one. It is expected to grow over the next few years, as it has been for many industries.

The number of individuals with access to health care services is expected to increase at a steady pace over the next few years. This growth will be driven by advancements in medical technology, which will lead to better health care outcomes and improvements in quality of life for patients.

Some interesting statistics:

• The total value of all global transactions conducted in the medical technology industry reached $1.94 trillion (US) in 2016 (figure courtesy of Gartner).

• Revenue from this sector grew by 21% between 2010 and 2016 (figure courtesy of Deloitte).

• Global investment in medical technology is expected to reach $3.66 trillion (US) by 2022 (figure courtesy of Gartner).

3. The Impact of FDA Regulations on Medical Technology

This year, the FDA issued a warning letter to a company called Axon Neuroscience, which is developing an imaging device that is said to be able to detect cancer at a very early stage. The FDA claimed that there was no legitimate clinical evidence that the device actually worked. This has led to some sort of controversy in the medical technology world, as well as much discussion on whether or not it should be allowed in the market at all.

We believe there is an important question here: how far does medical technology have to go before it becomes a real threat to conventional medicine? And what does it mean when we say ‘conventional medicine’? Obviously, the FDA would like you not to use this kind of technology in medicine (they want it for research), but there is also another set of concerns and potential controversies that need to be discussed:

• Is it even necessary for doctors and hospitals to have access to such technologies?

• Are these technologies available on any conventional medical device?

• What about things like minimally invasive surgery? Can surgeons use these machines if they have them? And what about devices that monitor or record vital signs or blood pressure?

It seems clear that if this technology becomes viable, it will become available in a lot more devices (including everything from MRI machines and CT scanners). But questions like these cannot simply be answered ‘yes’ or ‘no’ — they are going to need more details than we can provide here. We do know this though: once these devices reach the market, they will reshape everything we know about medicine.

4. The Importance of Innovation in Medical Technology

The recent launch by the World Health Organization (WHO) of its Global Burden of Disease study is a very interesting and timely project. The scope of the study is quite broad and it measures a whole suite of health issues. A lot of people have been saying “well, we’re already doing it,” but if you look at the WHO’s numbers, you can see that they are right.

One of the things they measure is the prevalence of different diseases, which as you can guess is changing over time as new diseases emerge and old diseases die off. One way this can be measured is through incidence rates: how often do these diseases occur in a population? The incidence rate or prevalence rate tells us how much disease there is in a population. If the prevalence rate for a disease stands at 1%, then it has a 100% incidence in that population.

Here’s an example: If there were 200 people in my town and all were infected with HIV, then there would be 0% incidence among them. However, if I had 20 people who had HIV but were not infected with AIDS (since AIDS would be rare), then there would be 0% incidence among them too — so it’s zero!

What does that mean? It means that if I have 100 people in my town who are infected with HIV but not sick, then we have 0% disease overall. In other words: the prevalence is close to zero so we don’t have any disease at all (or at least none that anyone I know has been diagnosed with).

Now let’s say that I add another 100 people to my town and let them all be healthy. Then the prevalence rate for HIV will almost certainly go up; but since we no longer see any cases among us (ie – any person who has HIV), our total population will also increase by about 10%. This means that since 1000 people now live in my town, we now have 2000 people experiencing the disease. So when I put more than 1000 people into my town, there will always be more than 1000 diseased people here too!

The number of diseased folks increases as well because some folks get sicker while others get healthier; this means that sometimes our total number of patients increases while at other times their number falls back down to zero or very few numbers anymore on average. But we don’t need to worry about each individual patient because they all fit into one group!

5. The Scope of the Industry in 2022

It has become part of the conversation to quantify the scope of the medical technology industry in 2022. The scope is generally understood to be that of a company’s activities and its market share in a specific market.

But there are some important distinctions. First, let me explain what I mean by “scope”, and then go on to explain why it is not the same as “market penetration”.

Scope: Scope is simply a measure of the size of a market or a set of markets it covers (or the number of markets). Scope can also be defined in terms of institutions that have a particular reach or scope (e.g. pharmaceutical companies, device manufacturers, etc.). Finally, the scope can also be defined in terms of activities rather than customers (e.g., digital health data is only useful if it can be used to predict health outcomes).

Market share: Market share refers to the proportion or percentage share of the market for which an individual firm has total or partial control (e.g., control over key customers or suppliers). Market share is often measured using unit sales figures and usually refers to direct competition from other firms (in this case referred to as “cost-plus”). In contrast, scope relates to activities and isn’t directly comparable with market penetration but instead with how much “business gets done”—i.e., how much value can be created through one firm alone vs how much value is created when multiple firms contribute equally towards that work. The simple way to think about it is that scale means more value being created by one firm vs multiple firms working together toward that same goal, and penetration means one firm having more access (potentially at a cost) than others giving away their access (potentially at no cost) on an equal basis by buying into the same deal/process/alliance/etc.).

Market penetration: Market penetration refers to the fractional share of all purchases made by customers who are potential customers for each particular brand/product/service etc.—what we call “share price” here—and also defines this as “the number of times someone buys from you or using your product or service on average per transaction—i.e., each customer buying from you must get bought from you at least once 10% [from all other brands], 50% [from all other brands] and 100% [from all other brands] times his obligation for payment for his

6. Type of medical technologies in 2022

The medical technology industry is a multi-trillion dollar industry in the United States with an expected annual revenue of $1.6 trillion by 2022. This estimate is based on data from a survey conducted by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The need to educate physicians and train medical students is one reason why medical technology has become such a powerful force in healthcare today. Doctors who have gone through both training and clinical practice typically provide more care than their predecessors did 50 years ago, but they all struggle with the volume, variety, and complexity of the work they are expected to do every day — even though they are paid more than they were when they were doctors.

There are also many other reasons why this industry has become so large: new technology is continually changing what patients should be taught about their health; doctors are increasingly using technology to manage their careers; and there are new drugs, devices, and treatments for many diseases that require routine monitoring by health care professionals (including such things as hearing aids).

We will be able to determine this estimate for about five years from now; but as you can see from some of the questions below, we will have a lot to say about it in that time frame — especially since there might not be anything like this survey for several years yet!

7. Number of medical technologies by market segment in 2022

As many readers are aware, I am a member of the board of directors of the Medical Technology Industry Association (MTIA), a non-profit organization that represents the U.S. medical technology industry.

The MTIA is preparing a report on the scope of the medical technology industry in 2022 and there is an excellent opportunity to engage with our members here at MTIA and ask questions.

The MTIA is also holding a meeting with its members in Washington DC on January 29, 2018 at 10:00am ET to discuss this report in more depth. The meeting will focus on “the scope of the medical technology industry” and will be webcast live via video conference. Details are available here. Here are some key points from the report:

There are over 740,000 people employed by the U.S. health care system alone (a figure that includes non-physician employees); add in all those who work for contractors, consultants, and researchers and you have over 1 million people

Most jobs within this industry require only a bachelor’s degree; however, it does take 4 years or more to become certified with AAPM (American Association of Physician Assistants) or CNP (Certified Nurse Practitioner). A bachelor’s degree can take 2 years or less in an engineering or computer science field; however, it takes 4 years or more to become certified as an APC (Acute Physician Clinical)

Medical device manufacturers employ between 3 million and 5 million people

By 2022 there will be 6 million jobs in medical technology-related industries; half these jobs will be held by women [and] women will account for nearly two-thirds of all new hires by 2022

On average these professionals earn $100,000 annually [and] make anywhere from $50k-$150k per year when compared to other jobs within this field

8. Size of the Medical Technology Market in 2022

This is a prediction that a few people have made, in the hopes of getting some of the attention they feel their product deserves.

It’s pretty well known that 2022 will be the year in which there is an exponential increase in medical technology usage: from about $1 trillion today to $4 trillion by then. And it’s not just for medical reasons either:

A recent McKinsey report (which I can’t link because I think I am restricted to non-commercial blogging on this site) estimates that healthcare spending will grow by $10.8 trillion in 2022, up from $8.1 trillion today. And while most of this growth will take place outside of US, one big reason why US would seem to be off the hook is its dominance in some key areas. It is not only the biggest market for medical technology, but it is also one of the biggest markets for health care overall (the opposite is true for Japan).

The medical technology market itself grew more than 30% per year between 2002 and 2010 according to McKinsey and Company; but what was relatively new was its adoption into healthcare systems around the world. For example, I was recently asked to speak at a conference on “What are the barriers to adoption?” many participants were surprised how much progress has been made with regards to interoperability and integration between devices in different countries, and they were often surprised how little progress has been made with respect to data sharing across national borders (especially considering how much money we spend on data!).

9. Conclusion

The scope of the medical technology industry in 2022 is still unclear.

Industry forecasts are usually based on a uniform definition of the market, and many different definitions will be used by different people. However, there are three common ways to define the scope of a medical technology market:

1. The Life Sciences & Healthcare industry may be defined as all products which result from any process involving biological material or physical manipulation of biological material, including but not limited to genetic engineering, biotechnology (such as vaccine manufacturing), tissue engineering, cell therapy and regenerative medicine.

2. The Medical Devices industry may be defined as all products that are currently produced for use in the treatment or prevention of human disease or illness such as implantable cardiac defibrillators, bone stimulators and bone-setting devices or that have been developed but not introduced into clinical practice due to lack of development resources in this field.

3. The Pharmaceutical Industry may be defined as all products which are currently produced for use in the treatment or prevention of human disease or illness such as chemotherapy agents and anti-infectives etc..

The first definition is clearly more broad than the second one – it does not exclude anything because it includes everything that can be manufactured for human use (biological materials and/or physical manipulation). The second definition is less broad but more narrow – it only includes products which come under existing regulatory requirements. It also excludes any new product that might have been developed but not introduced into clinical practice due to lack of development resources; this has led some to argue that “medical device” should become an industry-standard term instead of a subset category. This argument was made by Dr John Eagan in his article “The Conceptual Framework for Developing a New Health Technology Sourcing Standard” (see here). He suggested that: “Future Industry standards should recognize existing categories such as drug delivery devices, but develop new categories where none exist today like tissue engineering devices.” We believe that this could make sense if it makes sense for everyone involved – there will always be people who do not agree with Dr. Eagan’s remarks on the medical device classification, and we certainly don’t want to exclude them from using our terms! But we believe that defining these terms sooner rather than later would lead us to better understand how our technology is classified and how we build our organization’s systems together (in particular our software systems), so we think it would make sense if these three definitions were used at different times when defining the scope.

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